Model-Based Reasoning
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Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Stochastic Ensemble Value Expansion
There is growing interest in combining model-free and model-based approaches in reinforcement learning with the goal of achieving the high performance of model-free algorithms with low sample complexity. This is difficult because an imperfect dynamics model can degrade the performance of the learning algorithm, and in sufficiently complex environments, the dynamics model will always be imperfect. As a result, a key challenge is to combine model-based approaches with model-free learning in such a way that errors in the model do not degrade performance. We propose stochastic ensemble value expansion (STEVE), a novel model-based technique that addresses this issue. By dynamically interpolating between model rollouts of various horizon lengths, STEVE ensures that the model is only utilized when doing so does not introduce significant errors. Our approach outperforms model-free baselines on challenging continuous control benchmarks with an order-of-magnitude increase in sample efficiency.
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Model-Based Reasoning (0.85)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning (0.82)
PICProp: Physics-Informed Confidence Propagation for Uncertainty Quantification
Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in deep learning and physics-informed learning have persistent limitations. Indicatively, strong assumptions regarding the data likelihood are required, the performance highly depends on the selection of priors, and the posterior can be sampled only approximately, which leads to poor approximations because of the associated computational cost.This paper introduces and studies confidence interval (CI) estimation for deterministic partial differential equations as a novel problem.That is, to propagate confidence, in the form of CIs, from data locations to the entire domain with probabilistic guarantees.We propose a method, termed Physics-Informed Confidence Propagation (PICProp), based on bi-level optimization to compute a valid CI without making heavy assumptions.We provide a theorem regarding the validity of our method, and computational experiments, where the focus is on physics-informed learning.
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Physics-Regularized Multi-Modal Image Assimilation for Brain Tumor Localization
Physical models in the form of partial differential equations serve as important priors for many under-constrained problems. One such application is tumor treatment planning, which relies on accurately estimating the spatial distribution of tumor cells within a patient's anatomy. While medical imaging can detect the bulk of a tumor, it cannot capture the full extent of its spread, as low-concentration tumor cells often remain undetectable, particularly in glioblastoma, the most common primary brain tumor. Machine learning approaches struggle to estimate the complete tumor cell distribution due to a lack of appropriate training data. Consequently, most existing methods rely on physics-based simulations to generate anatomically and physiologically plausible estimations. However, these approaches face challenges with complex and unknown initial conditions and are constrained by overly rigid physical models. In this work, we introduce a novel method that integrates data-driven and physics-based cost functions, akin to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs).
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Characterizing possible failure modes in physics-informed neural networks
Recent work in scientific machine learning has developed so-called physics-informed neural network (PINN) models. The typical approach is to incorporate physical domain knowledge as soft constraints on an empirical loss function and use existing machine learning methodologies to train the model. We demonstrate that, while existing PINN methodologies can learn good models for relatively trivial problems, they can easily fail to learn relevant physical phenomena for even slightly more complex problems. In particular, we analyze several distinct situations of widespread physical interest, including learning differential equations with convection, reaction, and diffusion operators. We provide evidence that the soft regularization in PINNs, which involves PDE-based differential operators, can introduce a number of subtle problems, including making the problem more ill-conditioned.
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Generalizing Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning with Variational Causal Reasoning
As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and discovering cause-and-effect relations. However, how to discover and represent causalities remains a huge gap that hinders the development of causal RL. In this paper, we augment Goal-Conditioned RL (GCRL) with Causal Graph (CG), a structure built upon the relation between objects and events. We novelly formulate the GCRL problem into variational likelihood maximization with CG as latent variables. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventional data to estimate the posterior of CG; using CG to learn generalizable models and interpretable policies. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that verify generalization capability under reasoning, we design nine tasks and then empirically show the effectiveness of the proposed method against five baselines on these tasks. Further theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement is attributed to the virtuous cycle of causal discovery, transition modeling, and policy training, which aligns with the experimental evidence in extensive ablation studies.
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COLD: Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries ( 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.
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